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Frederick County, MD

RANK #800 / 1001 NAT  ·  #12 / 18 MD  ·  POP 287,048

1YR FORECAST: -0.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +23%

Our model projects Frederick County's housing market at -0.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Frederick County?

Frederick County, Maryland, is often recognized for its historic downtown Frederick, a 40-block area with 18th and 19th-century architecture, shops, and restaurants. Located in western Maryland, the county sits about an hour's drive from both Baltimore and Washington, D.C., making it a commuter-friendly area. The community offers a blend of small-town charm and urban amenities, with views of the Appalachian Mountains providing a scenic backdrop. Outdoor enthusiasts can explore Catoctin Mountain Park, the Appalachian Trail, and various local parks for hiking and other activities.

Life in Frederick County balances suburban and rural living, attracting families and professionals. The public school system is highly rated, and the county offers diverse housing options. Commute options include MARC train service and MTA commuter buses to Baltimore and Washington, D.C. The economy is driven by expanding life science, technology, and manufacturing sectors, with major employers in these fields. Additionally, there is investment in data center development and a growing e-commerce presence.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Frederick County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.0% YoY, population +2.4%, wages +1.2%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
17.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.0%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 17.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Fort Detrick Military
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Wells Fargo Home Mortgage Finance
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Frederick Community College Education
  4. 4
    AstraZeneca Manufacturing
    500+
  5. 5
    Lonza Walkersville Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Frederick County Government Government
  7. 7
    Frederick County Public Schools Education
  8. 8
    Frederick Health Healthcare
  9. 9
    Frederick National Lab for Cancer Research (Leidos Biomedical Research) Healthcare
  10. 10
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Frederick County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
287,048
+2.39% YoY
Median Household Income
$122,002
Median Home Value
$464,600
+0.02% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,774
Average Annual Pay
$70,681
+1.2% YoY
Employment
107,003
-1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2626
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.12%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
45.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$489,000
Days on Market
33
Active market
Months of Supply
2.1
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.1%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
41.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.5%
Building Permits (2025)
1,168
Single-Family Permits
814

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
7.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
66.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
42.0
Good
Good Air Days
82%
586 of 712 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
8
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
41
2023
44
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,000M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Aligned Data Centers Campus Expansion
Aligned Data Centers
$500M Under Construction
Quantum Frederick Data Center Development
Quantum Maryland, LLC
$500M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.4% 91 percentile
Income Growth +1.3% 19 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.5% 92 percentile
Home Price Change +0.0% 27 percentile
Rent Growth +1.0% 20 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 25 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Frederick County, MD a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Frederick County scores just 19/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #800 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -1.3% and median household income of $122,002 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Frederick County affordable?

Housing in Frederick County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $464,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $1,774/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Frederick County growing or shrinking?

Frederick County is attracting residents (population +2.4% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -1.3%. Housing values changed +0.0% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to Frederick County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.12% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Frederick County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Baltimore County, MD 18 Anne Arundel County, MD 18 Cecil County, MD 21 St. Mary's County, MD 17 Baltimore city, MD 12 Howard County, MD 10 Delaware County, OH 19 St. Johns County, FL 18