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Frederick County, MD

District 2

RANK #938 / 996 NAT  ·  #18 / 18 MD  ·  POP 273,829

1YR FORECAST: -0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +9%

Our model projects Frederick County's housing market at -0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Frederick County?

Frederick County, Maryland, is often recognized for its historic downtown Frederick, a 40-block area with 18th and 19th-century architecture, shops, and restaurants. Located in western Maryland, the county sits about an hour's drive from both Baltimore and Washington, D.C., making it a commuter-friendly area. The community offers a blend of small-town charm and urban amenities, with views of the Appalachian Mountains providing a scenic backdrop. Outdoor enthusiasts can explore Catoctin Mountain Park, the Appalachian Trail, and various local parks for hiking and other activities.

Life in Frederick County balances suburban and rural living, attracting families and professionals. The public school system is highly rated, and the county offers diverse housing options. Commute options include MARC train service and MTA commuter buses to Baltimore and Washington, D.C. The economy is driven by expanding life science, technology, and manufacturing sectors, with major employers in these fields. Additionally, there is investment in data center development and a growing e-commerce presence.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.9%

Above national median

Home Prices
+0.3%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 7.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Fort Detrick Military
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Wells Fargo Home Mortgage Finance
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Frederick Community College Education
  4. 4
    AstraZeneca Manufacturing
    500+
  5. 5
    Lonza Walkersville Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Frederick County Government Government
  7. 7
    Frederick County Public Schools Education
  8. 8
    Frederick Health Healthcare
  9. 9
    Frederick National Lab for Cancer Research (Leidos Biomedical Research) Healthcare
  10. 10
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Frederick County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
273,829
+2.37% YoY
Median Household Income
$115,724
Median Home Value
$412,500
+0.3% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,633
Average Annual Pay
$69,852
+4.4% YoY
Employment
108,438
+2.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2805
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.61%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
43.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$470,000
Days on Market
52
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.4
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.7%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
26.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
23.0%
Building Permits (2024)
1,562
Single-Family Permits
1,185

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
7.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
66.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
42.0
Good
Good Air Days
82%
586 of 712 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
8
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
41
2023
44
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,000M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Aligned Data Centers Campus Expansion
Aligned Data Centers
$500M Under Construction
Quantum Frederick Data Center Development
Quantum Maryland, LLC
$500M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.9% 70 percentile
Population Growth +2.4% 92 percentile
Income Growth +9.0% 64 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.6% 92 percentile
Home Price Change +0.3% 34 percentile
Rent Growth +1.0% 20 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 25 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Frederick County, MD a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Frederick County scores just 5/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #938 of 996 counties. Job growth at +2.0% and median household income of $115,724 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Frederick County affordable?

Housing in Frederick County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $412,500 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,633/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Frederick County growing or shrinking?

Frederick County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.0% clip. Home values shifted +0.3% in the past year.

Are people moving to Frederick County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.61% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Frederick County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Montgomery County, MD 6 Charles County, MD 8 Howard County, MD 9 Anne Arundel County, MD 12 Worcester County, MD 12 Prince George's County, MD 12 Chatham County, GA 5 Sussex County, DE 5