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Thurston County, WA

RANK #827 / 1001 NAT  ·  #14 / 21 WA  ·  POP 299,067

1YR FORECAST: -0.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +22%

Our model projects Thurston County's housing market at -0.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Thurston County?

Thurston County, Washington, stands out for its unique Mima Mounds, a geological enigma on Mima Prairie. Located at the southern tip of Puget Sound, about 60 miles south of Seattle, the county offers a blend of urban amenities and natural landscapes. Its communities, including the state capital Olympia, Lacey, and Tumwater, provide diverse living environments. The area boasts extensive outdoor recreation, with hundreds of miles of Puget Sound shoreline, numerous parks, and trails like the Chehalis Western Trail and Yelm-Rainier-Tenino Trail, ideal for hiking, biking, and kayaking. The climate is moderate, with green scenery year-round.

Life in the county offers a balance of natural beauty and community focus, attracting families and those seeking a less congested pace than larger nearby cities. Commuting primarily involves driving alone, though public transit options are available in urban centers. School districts like Olympia School District and North Thurston Public Schools serve local families. The economy, historically rooted in logging, shifted significantly in the 1950s with the growth of state government employment in Olympia. Recent economic development efforts have focused on attracting investment and fostering growth in various sectors, including infrastructure, water security, and environmental restoration.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Thurston County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +0.4% runs above the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
14.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.4%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
3.3

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 14.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    State of Washington Government
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Providence Health & Services Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Olympia School District Education
  4. 4
    Washington State Department of Social & Health Services Government
    250+
  5. 5
    Lowe's Retail
    41
  6. 6
    Lucky Eagle Casino Hotel Hospitality
    38
  7. 7
    Washington State Department of Ecology Government
    37
  8. 8
    The Evergreen State College Education
    35
  9. 9
    Safeway Companies Retail
    34
  10. 10
    Thurston County Government Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Thurston County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
299,067
+0.82% YoY
Median Household Income
$96,563
Median Home Value
$480,300
+0.38% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,736
Average Annual Pay
$76,161
+5.7% YoY
Employment
129,889
+0.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.201
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.01%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$535,000
Days on Market
13
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
2.8
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.3%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
33.7%
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.9%
Building Permits (2025)
1,669
Single-Family Permits
743

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
10.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
79.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

A
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
25.0
Good
Good Air Days
91%
945 of 1,035 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
19
2022
28
2023
28
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$903M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Centralia Battery Energy Storage System
CENT bn, LLC (Developer)
$400M Planned
Thurston County Capital Improvement Program (2026-2031)
Thurston County Government
$267M Planned
Skookumchuck Wind Facility
Southern Power Co. (Operator)
$136M Operating
Amazon Fulfillment Center
Amazon
$50M Operating
Manor House Subdivision
MK 58LLC
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 59 percentile
Income Growth +2.7% 49 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 50 percentile
Home Price Change +0.4% 31 percentile
Rent Growth +3.3% 56 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 16 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Thurston County, WA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Thurston County scores just 17/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #827 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.8% and median household income of $96,563 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Thurston County affordable?

Thurston County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $480,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.20 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,736/month on average.

Is Thurston County growing or shrinking?

Thurston County's population is growing — up +0.8% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.8%). Home values shifted +0.4% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Thurston County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.01% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Thurston County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Pierce County, WA 17 Island County, WA 18 Spokane County, WA 16 Skagit County, WA 19 Clark County, WA 14 Chelan County, WA 21 Sandoval County, NM 17 St. Johns County, FL 18