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Sullivan County, TN

District 4

RANK #851 / 996 NAT  ·  #30 / 33 TN  ·  POP 158,722

1YR FORECAST: -0.9%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

Our model projects Sullivan County's housing market at -0.9% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Sullivan County?

Bristol, Tennessee, one of Sullivan County's notable towns, holds the distinction of being the "Birthplace of Country Music," a heritage celebrated at its museum. Located in the northeastern corner of Tennessee, bordering Virginia, Sullivan County is part of the Tri-Cities region. The community offers a blend of historic districts and natural scenery, with the Holston River and South Holston Lake providing opportunities for outdoor recreation like fishing and boating. Major interstates I-26 and I-81 connect the county, facilitating regional travel. Life in Sullivan County attracts a mix of families, young professionals, and retirees, many of whom own their homes. The public school system is generally considered above average, with several top-ranked elementary schools. The local economy is seeing growth, particularly in manufacturing, healthcare, and retail sectors. Recent economic developments include investments in industrial parks and site preparation for future advanced manufacturing and industrial projects. The county's strategic location and existing infrastructure contribute to its appeal for businesses and residents alike.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
2.9x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+6.0%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-0.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks undervalued at 2.9x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Eastman Chemical Company Manufacturing
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Ballad Health/Holston Valley Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Sullivan County Board of Education Education
  4. 4
    Kingsport City Schools Education
  5. 5
    BAE Systems Ordnance Systems, Inc. Manufacturing
    500+
  6. 6
    Agero, Inc. Technology
  7. 7
    Eastman Credit Union Finance
  8. 8
    Home Shopping Network (HSN) Retail
  9. 9
    City of Kingsport Government
  10. 10
    Holston Medical Group Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sullivan County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
158,722
+0.56% YoY
Median Household Income
$54,357
Median Home Value
$173,000
-0.23% 12mo
Median Rent
$793
Average Annual Pay
$62,036
+4.1% YoY
Employment
70,256
+1.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3142
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.59%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
26.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$249,500
Days on Market
78
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.2
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
16.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
23.2%
Building Permits (2024)
453
Single-Family Permits
423

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
18.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
120.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
41.0
Good
Good Air Days
78%
849 of 1,092 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
2
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
40
2023
42
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,337M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Riverside Energy Center (Natural Gas Power Plant)
Invenergy Company
$930M Planned
Town Line Solar and Battery Storage
RWE
$300M Proposed
Sullivan County Jail Expansion
Sullivan County
$107M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +6.0% 90 percentile
Population Growth +0.6% 55 percentile
Income Growth +9.5% 71 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 69 percentile
Home Price Change -0.2% 29 percentile
Rent Growth +3.9% 65 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 86 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sullivan County, TN a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Sullivan County scores just 14/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #851 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.4% and median household income of $54,357 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Sullivan County affordable?

Housing in Sullivan County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $173,000 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.31, with rents averaging $793/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Sullivan County growing or shrinking?

Sullivan County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +0.6% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.4% clip. Home values shifted -0.2% in the past year.

Are people moving to Sullivan County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.59% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sullivan County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Montgomery County, TN 16 Tipton County, TN 11 Cumberland County, TN 20 Robertson County, TN 22 Sevier County, TN 22 Carter County, TN 6 Columbia County, GA 14 Beaver County, PA 14