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Pender County, NC

Topsail

RANK #932 / 996 NAT  ·  #46 / 51 NC  ·  POP 61,592

1YR FORECAST: -0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +10%

Our model projects Pender County's housing market at -0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Pender County?

Pender County, North Carolina, is distinguished by Topsail Island, a popular beach destination, and the Black River, recognized as one of the nation's least polluted rivers. Located in the Coastal Plains region, the county offers a blend of rural charm and natural beauty, with extensive waterways like the Cape Fear River and dense woodlands. Burgaw, the county seat, combines historic 18th and 19th-century architecture with newer developments. Commuting to Wilmington, a nearby city, typically takes 20-30 minutes, though Highway 17 can experience heavy traffic. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with opportunities for kayaking, hiking, fishing, and exploring parks such as Hampstead Kiwanis Park and Abbey Nature Preserve.

Life in Pender County offers a small-town atmosphere, appealing to families and those seeking a quieter lifestyle. The public school system serves over 11,000 students across 19 schools and is considered above average. The county has experienced rapid population growth, with new housing developments emerging across the area, including in towns like Hampstead and Rocky Point. This growth is driving an expansion of commercial services within the county. While agriculture, particularly blueberries, remains a foundational industry, there is also increasing investment in manufacturing and other sectors.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.4%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-0.7%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.5

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 7.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Pender County Schools Education
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Pender County NC (Government) Government
    500+
  3. 3
    NC Dept of Public Safety Government
    250+
  4. 4
    Pender Memorial Hospital Inc. Healthcare
  5. 5
    Wal-Mart Associates Inc. Retail
  6. 6
    Gomez Harvesting LLC Agriculture
    100+
  7. 7
    L L Building Products Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Food Lion Retail
  9. 9
    Pender EMS and Fire Inc. Healthcare
  10. 10
    Daybreak of Rocky Mount Inc. Hospitality

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Pender County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
61,592
+2.71% YoY
Median Household Income
$74,538
Median Home Value
$240,800
-0.73% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,039
Average Annual Pay
$47,159
+4.4% YoY
Employment
14,704
+3.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3095
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.45%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$457,000
Days on Market
123
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.2
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
9.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
16.6%
Building Permits (2024)
944
Single-Family Permits
868

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
18.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
97.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$796M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Amazon Robotics Fulfillment Center
Amazon
$500M Under Construction
Pender County Solar Farm
Cubico Sustainable Investments
$105M Operating
Community Solar Portfolio
Various (e.g., John Laing US Solar Corp., Quarter Horse Farm LLC)
$100M Operating
New K-8 School
Pender County Schools
$50M Under Construction
Pender County Utility Infrastructure Upgrades
Pender County Utilities
$41M Planned/Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.4% 86 percentile
Population Growth +2.7% 94 percentile
Income Growth +13.5% 98 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 31 percentile
Home Price Change -0.7% 23 percentile
Rent Growth +2.2% 36 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 86 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Pender County, NC a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Pender County scores just 6/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #932 of 996 counties. Job growth at +3.7% and median household income of $74,538 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Pender County affordable?

Housing in Pender County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $240,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.31, with rents averaging $1,039/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Pender County growing or shrinking?

Pender County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.7% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.7% clip. Home values shifted -0.7% in the past year.

Are people moving to Pender County?

In significant numbers — 6.45% of Pender County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Haywood County, NC 5 Durham County, NC 5 Wake County, NC 5 Mecklenburg County, NC 8 New Hanover County, NC 8 Orange County, NC 9 Carter County, TN 6 Chaves County, NM 7