34 / 100

Lincoln County, SD

RANK #660 / 1001 NAT  ·  POP 70,638

1YR FORECAST: +1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +26%

#39 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Lincoln County's housing market at +1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Lincoln County?

Lincoln County, South Dakota, stands out as one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States, largely due to the southward expansion of Sioux Falls, the state's largest city. Canton serves as the county seat, while other notable towns include Tea and Harrisburg. Commuting to Sioux Falls is a common practice, with Interstate 29 running through the county. The community offers access to outdoor recreation along the Big Sioux River, with opportunities for kayaking and fishing, and parks like Lake Alvin and Newton Hills State Park provide hiking and camping options.

Life in Lincoln County is characterized by a mix of families and young professionals, with a majority of residents owning their homes. The public schools in districts like Harrisburg, Tea Area, and Canton are considered above average. The economy is significantly influenced by its proximity to Sioux Falls, which is a major trade area and home to nationally recognized healthcare providers. Recent economic developments include public-private partnerships focused on developing commercial, light industrial, and residential areas, leading to increased tax revenue for schools and communities.

MARKET PROFILE
LEANS TOWARD

Sun Belt Exurban Boom

Lincoln County is one of 43 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +1.9% runs above the profile's typical -0.0%.

See all 43 Sun Belt Exurban Boom counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.9%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
-3.9

Harsh climate or flat terrain

Price/Rent
21x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 11.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Avera Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Sanford Health Healthcare
  3. 3
    Retail Trade (various employers) Retail
    2,500+
  4. 4
    Finance & Insurance (various employers) Finance
  5. 5
    Manufacturing (various employers) Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services (various employers) Other
  7. 7
    Lincoln County Government Government
  8. 8
    Lincoln County School District Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lincoln County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
70,638
+3.44% YoY
Median Household Income
$99,166
Median Home Value
$348,300
+1.85% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,260
Average Annual Pay
$69,485
+6.7% YoY
Employment
30,502
+2.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2847
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.83%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
44.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$389,290
Days on Market
43
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.3
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.1%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
19.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
17.4%
Building Permits (2025)
232
Single-Family Permits
208

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Firearm Fatalities
7.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
44.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +3.4% 96 percentile
Income Growth +2.7% 48 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 76 percentile
Home Price Change +1.9% 53 percentile
Rent Growth +4.6% 73 percentile
Price/Rent 21x 13 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lincoln County, SD a good place to move to?

At 34/100, Lincoln County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $99,166 combined with job growth of +2.7% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Lincoln County affordable?

Housing in Lincoln County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $348,300 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,260/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Lincoln County growing or shrinking?

Lincoln County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.7% clip. Home values shifted +1.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Lincoln County?

In significant numbers — 5.83% of Lincoln County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Pennington County, SD 32 Minnehaha County, SD 61 Belmont County, OH 34 St. Croix County, WI 34 Starr County, TX 33 Hood County, TX 35 Cherokee County, SC 33 Madison County, ID 35