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Caldwell County, NC

RANK #75 / 1001 NAT  ·  #6 / 51 NC  ·  POP 80,536

1YR FORECAST: +0.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +37%

Our model projects Caldwell County's housing market to grow +0.6% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Caldwell County?

Caldwell County, North Carolina, distinguishes itself with its extensive collection of public outdoor sculptures, particularly in Lenoir, which hosts an annual Sculpture Celebration. Located in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, the county offers a blend of natural beauty and small-town living. Lenoir, the county seat, is approximately 69 miles northwest of Charlotte and 65 miles east of Asheville, with commute times to major cities generally under 90 minutes. The community provides a serene landscape with wide-open spaces, and residents have access to numerous outdoor activities like hiking, fishing, kayaking, and mountain biking in areas such as Wilson Creek and Pisgah National Forest. The Lenoir Greenway offers miles of paved trails for walking and cycling.

Life in Caldwell County offers an affordable cost of living within close-knit communities like Lenoir, Hudson, and Granite Falls. The Caldwell County Schools system serves nearly 11,000 students across various elementary, middle, and high schools, including innovative options on the Caldwell Community College and Technical Institute campus. Public transportation, including Caldwell Micro-Transit, provides curb-to-curb service within the county. Historically a furniture manufacturing hub, Caldwell County has diversified its economy over the past 15 years. While furniture production remains a factor, the area has seen growth in sectors such as data centers and advanced manufacturing, attracting new investments and contributing to job creation.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Caldwell County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.8% YoY, population -0.1%, wages +2.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.8%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
1.5

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
22x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 11.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Merchants Distributors, Inc. Logistics
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Caldwell County Schools Education
  3. 3
    UNC Health Healthcare
    500+
  4. 4
    Bernhardt Furniture Company Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Walmart Associates Retail
  6. 6
    Exela Pharma Sciences Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Caldwell Community College & Technical Institute (CCC&TI) Education
  8. 8
    JBS USA Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Fairfield Chair Co. Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Stallergenes Greer Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Caldwell County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
80,536
-0.1% YoY
Median Household Income
$56,425
Median Home Value
$192,200
+0.81% 12mo
Median Rent
$744
Average Annual Pay
$52,003
+2.8% YoY
Employment
25,290
-0.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2936
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
1.79%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
18.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$289,000
Days on Market
52
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
4.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.9%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
29.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
27.6%
Building Permits (2025)
501
Single-Family Permits
499

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
18.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
107.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
40.0
Good
Good Air Days
90%
663 of 733 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
40
2022
40
2023
40
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,523M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Project Snow Data Center Campus (Phase 1)
Prime Data Centers LLC
$1,300M Planned
Google Data Center Expansion
Google
$1,000M Under Construction
Foothills Renewable Natural Gas Project
Evensol LLC, Duke Energy, Republic Services
$73M Operating
Community Solar Portfolio (Brighter Future Solar & Blue Ridge Energy Solar)
Brighter Future Solar LLC, Blue Ridge Energy
$50M Operating
Advanced Manufacturing & Industrial Redevelopment
Various (e.g., Exela Pharma Sciences, Caldwell County EDC)
$50M Ongoing
Evergreene Industrial Park Development
Caldwell County Economic Development
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.1% 18 percentile
Income Growth +1.9% 28 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 46 percentile
Home Price Change +0.8% 36 percentile
Price/Rent 22x 11 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Caldwell County, NC a good place to move to?

Caldwell County ranks #75 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 92/100. The composite score reflects long-term strength — housing, income, and migration patterns — but near-term hiring is soft (employment is down 0.8% year-over-year). Median household income here is $56,425.

Is Caldwell County affordable?

Housing in Caldwell County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $192,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $744/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Caldwell County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Caldwell County are both close to flat — population -0.1% YoY and jobs -0.8%. Home values shifted +0.8% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are many people relocating to Caldwell County?

Not particularly — 1.79% of Caldwell County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Lee County, NC 93 Rutherford County, NC 90 Wayne County, NC 90 Wilkes County, NC 95 Surry County, NC 88 Carteret County, NC 87 Anderson County, TN 92 Cattaraugus County, NY 92