83 / 100

Lincoln County, MO

Bedford

RANK #168 / 996 NAT  ·  #9 / 22 MO  ·  POP 60,172

1YR FORECAST: +4.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +33%

Our model projects Lincoln County's housing market to grow +4.3% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Lincoln County?

Ongoing infrastructure improvements, particularly the $15.4 million Missouri Route 47 diverging diamond interchange project slated for completion by Fall 2025, are the single biggest catalyst driving real estate demand in Lincoln County. This project, alongside other Route 61 corridor upgrades totaling $36 million through 2027, enhances connectivity to the St. Louis metropolitan area, attracting new residents and businesses. The county's population grew by 1,200 residents between 2023 and 2024, primarily due to domestic migration. This trend is expected to continue, with the population projected to reach 68,250 by 2026.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
8.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.9%

Well above national median

Home Prices
+5.4%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
0.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 8.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Lincoln County R-III School District Education
    500+
  2. 2
    Toyota Motor Manufacturing of Missouri Manufacturing
  3. 3
    JJ Snack Foods (Daddy Ray's) Manufacturing
  4. 4
    Walmart Supercenter Retail
    250+
  5. 5
    Mercy Hospital Lincoln Healthcare
  6. 6
    Witte Bros Exchange, Inc. Logistics
    100+
  7. 7
    Geeding Construction Other
  8. 8
    Peoples Bank & Trust Finance
  9. 9
    Brooks Brothers Trailers & Equipment Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Community Opportunities Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lincoln County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
60,172
+2.53% YoY
Median Household Income
$82,543
Median Home Value
$206,800
+5.37% 12mo
Median Rent
$958
Average Annual Pay
$53,839
+5.8% YoY
Employment
12,799
+3.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3991
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.45%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
18.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$311,845
Days on Market
27
Active market
Months of Supply
3.3
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.5%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
31.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
21.2%
Building Permits (2024)
151
Single-Family Permits
121

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
106.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
41.3
Good
Good Air Days
84%
616 of 734 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
16
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
39
2022
41
2023
44
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$700M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Great Bend Wind Farm
Triple Oak Power
$300M Planned
Winfield Solar Project
Cordelio Power (with Qcells and Microsoft)
$150M Completed
Pike - Troy 161kV Line Solar Project
Undisclosed (MISO interconnection queue)
$150M Planned
New Ranken Technical College Campus
Ranken Technical College
$50M Planned
Highway 61 and Royal Industrial Parks
N/A
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.9% 89 percentile
Population Growth +2.5% 93 percentile
Income Growth +7.7% 30 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 79 percentile
Home Price Change +5.4% 92 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 15 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lincoln County, MO a good place to move to?

Lincoln County ranks #168 out of 996 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 83/100, putting it in the top tier nationally. Job growth of +3.0% and a median household income of $82,543 point to a county with active economic momentum.

Is Lincoln County affordable?

By national standards, Lincoln County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $206,800, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.40 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $958/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Lincoln County growing or shrinking?

Lincoln County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.0% clip — and home values reflect that momentum, rising +5.4% over the past 12 months.

Are people moving to Lincoln County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.45% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Lincoln County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

How is the housing market in Lincoln County?

Home values climbed +5.4% year-over-year, which is a solid pace of appreciation. The median home in Lincoln County is now valued at $206,800. That kind of growth typically reflects sustained demand rather than speculative frenzy.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Jefferson County, MO 86 Cass County, MO 79 Greene County, MO 78 Cole County, MO 90 Jasper County, MO 91 Pulaski County, MO 93 Crawford County, AR 83 Washington County, OH 83