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Lawrence County, PA

New Castle

RANK #97 / 996 NAT  ·  #5 / 44 PA  ·  POP 85,907

1YR FORECAST: +2.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +36%

#41 Most Affordable #47 Best for Investment
Our model projects Lawrence County's housing market to grow +2.0% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Lawrence County?

Lawrence County, Pennsylvania, is defined by its natural landscape, particularly McConnells Mill State Park, a National Natural Landmark featuring the Slippery Rock Creek Gorge with waterfalls, hiking trails, and a historic gristmill. Located about an hour north of Pittsburgh, the county offers a blend of rural scenery and access to urban amenities. Commuting to Pittsburgh is facilitated by Park & Ride options. The county also has a notable Old Order Amish community, especially around the villages of Volant and New Wilmington. Outdoor recreation extends to fishing in Neshannock Creek and Slippery Rock Creek, biking on the Stavich Bicycle Trail, and exploring Quaker Falls Recreation Area.

Life in Lawrence County offers a mix of small-town warmth and access to outdoor activities. The public schools in the county are generally above average. While the county has experienced a population decline, particularly in its main city, New Castle, rural and suburban areas have seen some growth. The economy is seeing investment in manufacturing, with one company expanding its operations and creating new jobs. The county's economic development efforts focus on supporting businesses and enhancing services.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.5x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
-1.6%

Contracting economy

Home Prices
+0.6%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks undervalued at 3.5x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    UPMC Jameson Healthcare
  2. 2
    Excel Companion Care LLC Healthcare
  3. 3
    DON Services Inc. Other
  4. 4
    Walmart Associates Inc. Retail
  5. 5
    New Castle Area School District Education
  6. 6
    Lawrence County Government Government
  7. 7
    Westminster College Education
  8. 8
    State Government Government
  9. 9
    Ellwood City Forge Company Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Dairy Farmers of America Inc. Agriculture

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lawrence County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
85,907
-0.47% YoY
Median Household Income
$57,585
Median Home Value
$130,000
+0.55% 12mo
Median Rent
$787
Average Annual Pay
$52,927
+2.7% YoY
Employment
26,838
-1.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.443
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.84%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
22.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$180,000
Days on Market
93
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.9
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
27.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
15.1%
Building Permits (2024)
60
Single-Family Permits
60

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
16.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
130.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
34.0
Good
Good Air Days
93%
736 of 788 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
31
2022
37
2023
34
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,675M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Hickory Run Energy Station
Hickory Run Energy, LLC
$1,000M Operating
Firefly Solar Project (400 MW)
Vesper Energy
$400M Planned
Tri Global Energy Solar Project (175 MW solar, 40 MW battery storage)
Tri Global Energy
$215M Planned
LS Power Solar Farm (60 MW)
LS Power
$60M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth -1.6% 3 percentile
Population Growth -0.5% 11 percentile
Income Growth +8.4% 48 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 71 percentile
Home Price Change +0.6% 38 percentile
Rent Growth +11.1% 98 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 94 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lawrence County, PA a good place to move to?

Lawrence County ranks #97 out of 996 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 90/100. The composite score reflects long-term strength — housing, income, and migration patterns — but near-term hiring is soft (employment is down 1.0% year-over-year). Median household income here is $57,585.

Is Lawrence County affordable?

By national standards, Lawrence County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $130,000, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.44 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $787/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Lawrence County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Lawrence County are both close to flat — population -0.5% YoY and jobs -1.0%. Home values shifted +0.6% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Lawrence County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.84% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Lawrence County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Cambria County, PA 90 Indiana County, PA 91 Clearfield County, PA 95 Crawford County, PA 97 Columbia County, PA 83 Blair County, PA 98 Cole County, MO 90 Van Buren County, MI 90