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Orange County, NC

RANK #741 / 996  ·  POP 145,919  ·  NC

PROJECTED GROWTH: -0.2%

Orange County is losing people and economic momentum. This metro faces significant structural headwinds.

[01] Why Orange County?

Orange County, North Carolina, is often recognized for Chapel Hill, home to the University of North Carolina, the oldest state-supported university in the United States. Located in the north-central Piedmont region, the county sits approximately 20 miles east of Raleigh-Durham International Airport, offering access to major cities via Interstates 40 and 85. The area blends a rural feel with cosmopolitan influences, featuring rolling hills and green countryside. Outdoor enthusiasts can explore numerous trails and greenways, including sections of the Mountains-to-Sea Trail along the Eno River, and enjoy parks like Eno River State Park and Occoneechee Mountain State Natural Area.

Life in Orange County offers a mix of small-town charm and access to larger metropolitan amenities. Public schools in Orange County are highly rated, and the county is served by two school districts: Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools. Commute options include local bus services within towns like Hillsborough, and connector routes to Chapel Hill and Durham. Recent economic developments include expansions by manufacturing and healthcare technology companies in towns like Mebane and Chapel Hill. The county also sees ongoing residential and commercial construction, including mixed-use developments and efforts to increase affordable housing options.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.6x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+2.1%

Below national median

Home Prices
-1.4%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-1.4

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.6x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Signal Profile

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Orange County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
145,919
-0.99% YoY
Median Household Income
$85,785
Median Home Value
$395,600
-1.44% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,316
Average Annual Pay
$79,229
+5.6% YoY
Employment
78,431
+0.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2168
Near national average
Migration Inflow
6.7%
of pop. from another state

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$479,944
Days on Market
69
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.4
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
17.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
18.9%
Building Permits (2024)
375
Single-Family Permits
325

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Capital Investment

$929M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Asteria – Disney Residential Community (Chatham Park region, impacting Orange County)
Preston Development Company
$500M Under Construction/Planned
Chapel Hill Residential Developments (Chapel Hill Crossing, Meridian Lakeview, South Creek)
Various
$200M Under Construction
County Long Range Facility Plan Projects (Emergency Services HQ, Justice System, Recreation Facility)
Orange County
$89M Planned
Community Solar Portfolio
Various
$50M Operating/Planned
I-40/NC Hwy. 86 Interchange Improvements & Highway Widening
N.C. Department of Transportation
$50M Under Construction
ABB, Inc. Manufacturing Facility Expansion
ABB, Inc.
$40M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[06] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.1% 37 percentile
Population Growth -1.0% 3 percentile
Income Growth +8.3% 43 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 33 percentile
Home Price Change -1.4% 18 percentile
Rent Growth +2.3% 38 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 10 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Orange County, NC a good place to move to?

Orange County has a Boom Town Index score of 26/100, ranking #741 among 996 U.S. counties. With job growth at +0.8% and a median household income of $85,785, it faces some economic headwinds compared to faster-growing counties.

Is Orange County affordable?

The median home value in Orange County is $395,600 with median rent at $1,316/month. The income-to-home-value ratio is 0.2168, which is less affordable than the national average.

Is Orange County growing or shrinking?

Population growth: -1.0% year-over-year. Job growth: +0.8%. Home values changed -1.4% in the past 12 months.

Are people moving to Orange County?

Yes — 6.7% of Orange County's population moved from another state, which is above the national average and indicates strong in-migration.

[08] Similar Metros

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