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Jefferson County, TN

District 3

RANK #442 / 996 NAT  ·  #11 / 33 TN  ·  POP 55,017

1YR FORECAST: +0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +25%

Jefferson County's housing market is projected to grow +0.5% over the next year, tracking near the national average.

[01] Why Jefferson County?

Dandridge, the second oldest town in Tennessee, anchors Jefferson County with its historic charm and lakeside setting on Douglas Lake. Located in East Tennessee, the county is a short drive from Knoxville, with commutes averaging around 29 minutes for residents. The community offers a blend of small-town living and access to larger city amenities. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with Douglas and Cherokee Lakes providing opportunities for boating, fishing, and other water sports, complemented by mountain views and nearby access to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Life in Jefferson County is characterized by a small-town atmosphere and a focus on community. The public school system is recognized for high graduation rates and academic programs, with institutions like Carson-Newman University also present in the county. The economy has seen growth, particularly in manufacturing and distribution, with existing businesses expanding and new industries establishing a presence. This economic activity contributes to the area's infrastructure and job market, appealing to families and individuals seeking a balance of natural beauty and economic opportunity.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.4x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+6.1%

Well above national median

Home Prices
+0.7%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
1.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.4x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Old Dominion Freight Lines Logistics
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Jefferson County Schools Education
  3. 3
    Bush Brothers & Company Manufacturing
    500+
  4. 4
    Nyrstar – TN Mines Co. Manufacturing
    250+
  5. 5
    American Book Company Other
  6. 6
    Oshkosh Manufacturing Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Ball Metalpack Manufacturing
    100+
  8. 8
    Matsuo Industries Manufacturing
  9. 9
    TRU Homes Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Overman USA, Inc. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Jefferson County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
55,017
+1.21% YoY
Median Household Income
$60,393
Median Home Value
$183,800
+0.73% 12mo
Median Rent
$832
Average Annual Pay
$55,672
+5.8% YoY
Employment
14,061
+1.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3286
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.82%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
21.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$385,000
Days on Market
96
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.4
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
13.7%
Listings w/ Price Drops
24.2%
Building Permits (2024)
254
Single-Family Permits
244

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Firearm Fatalities
14.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
103.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
41.3
Good
Good Air Days
87%
628 of 720 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
2
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
41
2023
42
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$660M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Dumplin Valley Energy Storage Project
Plus Power
$500M Proposed
Bush Brothers & Company Process Water Filtration Plant
Bush Brothers & Company
$60M Completed
Oshkosh Corporation Manufacturing Facility
Oshkosh Corporation
$50M Operating
English Mountain Spring Water Expansion
English Mountain Spring Water
$50M Completed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +6.1% 91 percentile
Population Growth +1.2% 77 percentile
Income Growth +11.1% 91 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 59 percentile
Home Price Change +0.7% 41 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 13 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Jefferson County, TN a good place to move to?

Jefferson County scores 55/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 996 U.S. counties (#442). Median household income is $60,393 and job growth is running at +1.2%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Jefferson County affordable?

Housing in Jefferson County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $183,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.33, with rents averaging $832/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Jefferson County growing or shrinking?

Jefferson County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.2% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.2% clip. Home values shifted +0.7% in the past year.

Are people moving to Jefferson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.82% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Jefferson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

McMinn County, TN 54 Blount County, TN 52 Washington County, TN 62 Bradley County, TN 48 Hamilton County, TN 44 Hawkins County, TN 44 Butler County, KS 55 Morgan County, IN 55