54 / 100

Jefferson County, TN

RANK #452 / 1001 NAT  ·  #12 / 33 TN  ·  POP 56,864

1YR FORECAST: +0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +29%

Jefferson County's housing market is projected to grow +0.1% over the next year, tracking near the national average.

[01] Why Jefferson County?

Dandridge, the second oldest town in Tennessee, anchors Jefferson County with its historic charm and lakeside setting on Douglas Lake. Located in East Tennessee, the county is a short drive from Knoxville, with commutes averaging around 29 minutes for residents. The community offers a blend of small-town living and access to larger city amenities. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with Douglas and Cherokee Lakes providing opportunities for boating, fishing, and other water sports, complemented by mountain views and nearby access to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Life in Jefferson County is characterized by a small-town atmosphere and a focus on community. The public school system is recognized for high graduation rates and academic programs, with institutions like Carson-Newman University also present in the county. The economy has seen growth, particularly in manufacturing and distribution, with existing businesses expanding and new industries establishing a presence. This economic activity contributes to the area's infrastructure and job market, appealing to families and individuals seeking a balance of natural beauty and economic opportunity.

MARKET PROFILE

Secondary Market Surge

Jefferson County is one of 35 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +1.4% matches the profile's typical +1.4%.

See all 35 Secondary Market Surge counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
16.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.4%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
1.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
21x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 16.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Old Dominion Freight Lines Logistics
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Jefferson County Schools Education
  3. 3
    Bush Brothers & Company Manufacturing
    500+
  4. 4
    Nyrstar – TN Mines Co. Manufacturing
    250+
  5. 5
    American Book Company Other
  6. 6
    Oshkosh Manufacturing Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Ball Metalpack Manufacturing
    100+
  8. 8
    Matsuo Industries Manufacturing
  9. 9
    TRU Homes Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Overman USA, Inc. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Jefferson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
56,864
+1.84% YoY
Median Household Income
$66,114
Median Home Value
$229,300
+1.35% 12mo
Median Rent
$904
Average Annual Pay
$58,020
+4.2% YoY
Employment
13,802
-1.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2883
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.04%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
20.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$333,900
Days on Market
42
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
4.6
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
18.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.6%
Building Permits (2025)
331
Single-Family Permits
328

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Firearm Fatalities
14.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
103.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
41.3
Good
Good Air Days
87%
628 of 720 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
2
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
41
2022
41
2023
42
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$660M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Dumplin Valley Energy Storage Project
Plus Power
$500M Proposed
Bush Brothers & Company Process Water Filtration Plant
Bush Brothers & Company
$60M Completed
Oshkosh Corporation Manufacturing Facility
Oshkosh Corporation
$50M Operating
English Mountain Spring Water Expansion
English Mountain Spring Water
$50M Completed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.8% 85 percentile
Income Growth +4.8% 88 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.6% 86 percentile
Home Price Change +1.4% 44 percentile
Price/Rent 21x 12 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Jefferson County, TN a good place to move to?

Jefferson County scores 54/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 1001 U.S. counties (#452). Median household income is $66,114 and job growth is running at -1.8%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Jefferson County affordable?

Housing in Jefferson County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $229,300 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $904/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Jefferson County growing or shrinking?

Jefferson County is attracting residents (population +1.8% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -1.8%. Housing values changed +1.4% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to Jefferson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.04% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Jefferson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Sullivan County, TN 54 Bedford County, TN 52 Loudon County, TN 58 Washington County, TN 47 Blount County, TN 63 Sumner County, TN 40 Blount County, AL 54 Columbia County, OR 54