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Jefferson County, KY

RANK #764 / 1001 NAT  ·  #16 / 19 KY  ·  POP 783,022

1YR FORECAST: +0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +24%

#50 Most Undervalued
Our model projects Jefferson County's housing market at +0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Jefferson County?

Jefferson County, Kentucky, often recognized as Louisville Metro since its 2003 merger with the city of Louisville, stands out for its extensive park system and the Ohio River flowing along its northern border. This north-central Kentucky county offers diverse outdoor recreation, including the 6,500-acre Jefferson Memorial Forest, one of the largest municipal urban forests in the United States, providing opportunities for hiking, camping, and wildlife viewing. Commuting within the county is generally manageable, with an average one-way commute of 22.2 minutes, shorter than the national average. The Transit Authority of River City (TARC) provides bus and trolley services throughout the metropolitan area, connecting neighborhoods and job centers.

Life in Jefferson County blends urban amenities with suburban and natural spaces. Many residents own their homes, and the area is characterized by a variety of neighborhoods, from lively urban districts like The Highlands to more peaceful, tree-lined communities such as Anchorage. The economy is experiencing growth, with new businesses and capital investment contributing to job creation. Recent economic developments include significant state budget allocations aimed at improving infrastructure, supporting affordable housing, and enhancing cultural attractions, suggesting a focus on both resident well-being and drawing visitors.

MARKET PROFILE

Educated Suburban Growth

Jefferson County is one of 110 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +2.2% matches the profile's typical +2.4%.

See all 110 Educated Suburban Growth counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.5x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
+2.2%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
0.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.5x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    United Parcel Service (UPS) Logistics
    25,000+
  2. 2
    Norton Healthcare Healthcare
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Jefferson County Public Schools Education
  4. 4
    UofL Health Healthcare
  5. 5
    Humana Inc. Healthcare
  6. 6
    Ford Motor Company Manufacturing
  7. 7
    University of Louisville Education
    5,000+
  8. 8
    Louisville-Jefferson County Metro Government Government
  9. 9
    GE Appliances (a Haier company) Manufacturing
  10. 10
    The Kroger Co. Retail

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Jefferson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
783,022
+0.72% YoY
Median Household Income
$69,866
Median Home Value
$248,400
+2.17% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,149
Average Annual Pay
$74,643
+4.7% YoY
Employment
478,468
-0.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2813
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
1.56%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
37.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$285,000
Days on Market
37
Active market
Months of Supply
2.4
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.7%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
24.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
28.2%
Building Permits (2025)
3,001
Single-Family Permits
1,126

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

F
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
17.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
27.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
131.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
54.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
37%
408 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
29
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
54
2022
53
2023
55
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,139M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Mill Creek 5 Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Generating Unit
LG&E and KU
$902M Under Construction
Mill Creek 6 Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Unit
LG&E and KU
$645M Planned
Louisville Hyperscale Data Center Campus
PowerHouse Data Centers and Poe Companies
$450M Under Construction
I-264/U.S. 42 Improvement Project
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC)
$50M Construction Phase
U.S. 60 (Shelbyville Road) Widening and Improvement Project
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC)
$50M Construction Phase
Anthro Energy Battery Manufacturing Facility
Anthro Energy Inc.
$42M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.7% 55 percentile
Income Growth +3.0% 56 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.4% 21 percentile
Home Price Change +2.2% 58 percentile
Rent Growth +2.4% 41 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 54 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Jefferson County, KY a good place to move to?

At 23/100, Jefferson County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $69,866 combined with job growth of -0.8% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Jefferson County affordable?

Housing in Jefferson County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $248,400 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,149/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Jefferson County growing or shrinking?

Jefferson County's population is growing — up +0.7% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.8%). Home values shifted +2.2% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are many people relocating to Jefferson County?

Not particularly — 1.56% of Jefferson County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Scott County, KY 25 Christian County, KY 20 Hardin County, KY 27 Boone County, KY 30 Oldham County, KY 11 Warren County, KY 37 Essex County, NJ 24 Hidalgo County, TX 24