RANK #974 / 996 · POP 670,587 · DC
PROJECTED GROWTH: -4.0%
The decline in the District of Columbia's real estate market is primarily driven by a significant shift in the employment landscape, particularly within the federal government and related white-collar sectors. Since 2020, the rise of remote and hybrid work models has drastically reduced the demand for traditional office space. This trend was exacerbated by federal job cuts under the Trump administration, with over 200,000 federal worker positions eliminated and an additional 75,000 employees accepting buyouts by March 2025. This exodus of federal workers and the broader decline in office-using jobs, which saw a 1.3% year-over-year decrease by the end of 2025, have created a surplus of vacant commercial properties.
The current market reflects a challenging environment for commercial real estate, with office vacancy rates reaching 20.4% by the end of 2025, a 100-basis point increase year-over-year. Class A office rents declined 2.4% year-to-date in 2024, though overall asking rents saw a modest 1.9% increase over 2025 after three years of decline. This has led to a substantial decrease in property values, with 85.3% of high-value office buildings experiencing a decline by 2025, totaling a $6.9 billion loss and a $143.2 million reduction in real property tax collections. However, some developers are converting vacant office buildings into residential units, a trend that may offer a path to stabilization.
Well below national median
Prices declining
Below-average climate & terrain
Prices detached from rents
Housing looks undervalued at 3.3x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
DC Water Capital Improvement Plan (FY2024-2033)
DC Water
|
$7,740M | Planned |
|
Downtown Action Plan & Office-to-Residential Conversions
District of Columbia Government
|
$400M | Under Construction |
|
Washington Gas Modified District SAFE Plan
Washington Gas
|
$150M | Approved |
|
Community Solar Portfolio (Multiple Projects)
Various (e.g., Aligned Climate Capital, Black Bear Energy, Catholic University)
|
$60M | Operating/Under Construction |
|
DC Venture Capital Program
K Street Capital, District of Columbia
|
$52M | Operating |
|
The Geneva (Office-to-Residential Conversion)
Undisclosed Developer
|
$50M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.
District of Columbia has a Boom Town Index score of 2/100, ranking #974 among 996 U.S. counties. With job growth at +0.2% and a median household income of $101,722, it faces some economic headwinds compared to faster-growing counties.
The median home value in District of Columbia is $705,000 with median rent at $1,817/month. The income-to-home-value ratio is 0.1443, which is less affordable than the national average.
Population growth: -1.8% year-over-year. Job growth: +0.2%. Home values changed -3.0% in the past 12 months.